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Houston, Harvey, & post-natural-disaster residential patterns

Sarah Zhang of The Atlantic spoke with Princeton University and UCLA economist Leah Boustan about Houston and Hurricane Harvey. They discussed to what extent the natural disaster that befell Houston might serve as an impetus for residents of Houston to migrate, to move elsewhere.

Dr. Boustan and her colleagues Matthew Kahn, Paul Rhode, and Maria Lucia Yanguas have tracked the effect of natural disasters on economic activity in US counties. Their study has included an examination of migration after 5,000 natural disasters in the United States between 1920 and 2010.

The following excerpts follow Ms. Zhang’s transcription of Dr. Boustan’s discussion.

Risk & infrastructure

Boustan: We do find a migration response to an event like that. But for a very severe disaster—and Harvey looks like it’s going to be in that category—the response is twice as large.

Part of that has to do with people learning about the risk factors. Maybe they didn’t know the area they’re living in is so susceptible to storms.

Part of it is watching whether the existing infrastructure really works. There’s discussions now about Houston not really having enough of a drainage system. People might have known, yes, there are tropical storms, but they may not have understood the tropical storm is going to be such a devastating effect.

FEMA & centralized disaster response

Boustan: FEMA started in the early ’70s, and it gets its own independent status as an agency in ’78. We looked at before and after the ’70s, there was a hypothesis, well—and I’ve heard a lot of this post-Harvey—that when you have centralized disaster response, there’s not really an incentive to move out.

Moral hazard

Zhang: This is the idea of “moral hazard”: When you’re protected from the consequences of your actions, you take more risks.

Boustan: Right, like there’s going to be big government payout, and that encourages people to stay put in places that are risky. You know you’ll get your FEMA payout. We actually didn’t have any difference of course in the migration response before and after FEMA.

Centralized government response & disasters are getting worse

Boustan: But of course, this is really just a before and after, and there’s a lot things about the ’40s, ’50s, and ’60s, that could be different about the ’80s, ’90s, and 2000s. In particular, you can really see the number of disasters and severity of disasters increasing. There are two things going on that could be kind of confounding. On one hand, there’s government response. On the other hand, disaster activity is getting worse. We can’t really separate those two things, but it looks like because disasters are getting worse, there’s just as much of a migration response more recently than there was in the ’30s, ’40s, and ’50s.

See:

“Will People Return to Houston After Hurricane Harvey?” | Sarah Zhang, The Atlantic, 3 September 2017

#Houston #HurricaneHarvey #Harvey #naturaldisasters #migrations #realestate #realestatemarket #market #risk #FEMA #economics #Princeton #UCLA

 

 

 

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Houston’s residential real estate market & Hurricane Harvey | single-family home sales decline 24% year-over-year

The Houston metropolitan area has grown by about 400 people a day, building about 40,000 housing units a year. This has made Houston the nation’s largest new-housing market, with seven percent of the nation’s residential construction. Regulation has been light, the civic model tied to growth. Building everywhere and fast, the city has kept housing prices low.

“You have a country that’s divided between high cost places like Bay Area and New York and higher unemployment areas like Detroit, and places like Houston pick up the slack,” observed Issi Romem, chief economist at BuildZoom, a startup that helps people find contractors, both residential and commercial.

The New York Times reported on September 12 that people in Houston are “betting that nothing can stop Houston’s continued growth”.

“Redfin, a national real estate brokerage firm, said its agents had 45 home buyers lined up to purchase homes here when the storm hit. Only eight buyers backed out because of the storm, and tour requests immediately rebounded a week later.

“‘I was shocked,” said Glenn Kelman, the company’s chief executive, who lives in Seattle.

“For now, buyers and sellers are trying to figure out how prices have changed after the flood. The Powells’ potential buyer and many others are looking for a deal on a damaged home.

“At the same time, many economists are forecasting that the price of undamaged homes will rise as demand outstrips supply. Early estimates suggest that tens of thousands of homes were damaged, and developers are worried about labor shortages as repairs get priority over new construction.”

Then, on September 13, Inman reported that Houston homes sales have declined 24% year-over-year in August.

“Home sales were humming throughout the first three weeks of August, but the moment Harvey struck the region, everything came to a screeching halt,” said HAR (Houston Association of Realtors) chair Cindy Hamann.

“HAR’s latest monthly report shows that all segments of the Houston housing market felt the strain.

“August sales of property types across the board totaled 7,077, a 24 percent decline compared to the same month last year, while total dollar volume dropped 22 percent to $2.0 billion. After 10 consecutive months of gains, single-family home sales took a 25 percent year-over-year hit.”

In August, Business Insider gave some thought to the Houston housing market and vulnerabilities. Houston is a city with 800 miles of creeks and bayous that can easily overflow during a storm surge. It has seen 38,000 acres of wetlands disappear in the last two decades due to a construction boom in greater Houston. The city is flat and drainage systems are outdated. Developers, further, have often not followed the federal wetlands mandate. And building regulations have not accounted for historic flooding levels.

 

See:

“Houston housing comes to ‘screeching halt’ after Harvey” | Gill South, Inman, 13 September 2017

“Houston’s Unsinkable Housing Market Undaunted by Storm” | Annie Correal and Conor Dougherty, The New York Times, 12 September 2017

“A Storm Forces Houston, the Limitless City, to Consider Its Limits” | Manny Fernandez and Richard Fausset, The New York Times, 30 August 2017

“Houston was a ticking time-bomb for a devastating hurricane like Harvey” | Leanna Garfield, Business Insider, 28 August 2017

 

#Houston #HurricaneHarvey #Harvey #realestate #realestatemarket #housing #housing market #resilience #Redfin #HAR

 

 

 

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art & emergency planning・the MFAH shares perspective

Having passed through Hurricane Harvey with an emergency team onsite 24/7 to monitor and manage everything throughout the duration of the storm, the Museum of Fine Arts, Houston has shared information about its protocol for storm protection.

This information could prove helpful and encouraging to other arts institutions. A lesson to be learned: best to have an emergency plan and protocols in place ahead of possible natural disasters … and practice.

Here are some elements of the MFAH emergency protocol:

  • a hurricane-preparedness team
  • storm-planning measures to secure the buildings
  • sandbags (the MFAH has thousands of sandbags, each filled with sand the museum stores and re-cycles)
  • emergency water pumps (sump pumps)
  • floodgates to be activated as needed (the MFAH floodgates are house-made and 24-inches high)
  • preparation of a disaster-recovery website
  • a 24/7 emergency team to be stationed on site to monitor everything through the duration of the storm
    • the MFAH crew includes more than 30 people, each with a list of emergency contacts, including first and second responders, printed on a slip of waterproof Tyvek in their pockets. the team splits 18-hour shifts.
      • engineers
      • art handlers
      • IT
      • security guards
      • the chief technology officer (Shemon Bar-Tal)
      • the chief of building operations (Mike Pierce)
      • the chief operating officer (Willard Holmes)
  • relocation of works | works of art that are in potentially vulnerable locations to be moved as needed
  • a sense of humor, perspective, and humility
    • “Mother Nature and water are strange. You say, ‘I’m OK, I’ve got a floodgate, I’m good,’ and then she comes around the back door!” (Willard Holmes, COO)
    • “I think we’re really good on the broad strokes, but you can never just assume that the next storm is going to be like the one that just passed. If the last four days have taught us anything, it’s that it’s not over until it’s over.” (Willard Holmes, COO)

The permanent collection of the MFAH includes 65,000 paintings, sculptures and other objects at the main campus and at Bayou Bend and Rienzi, two historical estates along Buffalo Bayou, the city’s central waterway.

The museum is also responsible for several hundred masterpieces from other institutions, on loan for shows such as the current “Paint the Revolution: Mexican Modernization, 1910-1950.”

Paint the Revolution includes works by Frida Kahlo, Diego Rivera, Antonio Ruiz, Alfredo Ramos Martínez, María Izquierdo, José Clemente Orozco, Tina Modotti, Adolfo Best Maugard, and Saturnino Herrán.

See:

“How Harvey unfolded at MFAH” | Molly Glentzer, Houston Chronicle, 1 September 2017

“This Is How Museums In and Around Houston Prepared for Tropical Storm Harvey” | Priscilla Frank, Huffington Post, 1 September 2017

The Museum of Fine Arts, Houston (MFAH)

 

#art #artcollections #museums #MFAH #TheMuseumofFineArtsHouston #Houston #stormprotocols #emergencyteam #Harvey #HurricaneHarvey #realestate #resilience#smartluxury

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a helpful guide to settling post-disaster insurance claims

If you have sustained a major loss from Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, or from a flood, tornado, earthquake, or fire, here is a useful guide to follow.

The guide was prepared by Bernice Ross with information from Scott Friedson. Mr. Friedson is a public insurance adjuster (PA) and the CEO of Insurance Claim Recovery Support. Ms. Ross sustained over $100,000 of damage to her house from the Northridge earthquake in 1994.

what does a public insurance adjustor do?

“‘a good PA will be your advocate with the insurance company and will negotiate on your behalf to settle your insurance claim’”

Be safe.

Immediately notify the insurance company that you have a claim.

“By filing your claim right away, you are more likely to settle your claim quickly and to find a quality, local contractor. The sooner your claim is settled, the faster you can get your life back to normal.

“To file your claim, contact your local agent, call the special 800 number the company sets up, log into your online account or visit a mobile claims center.

“Flood insurance is separate from your homeowner’s policy and can be issued through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). If you have purchased flood insurance, your insurance agent will generally assist you in beginning the filing process.

“Unfortunately, if your home was flooded and you did not purchase flood insurance, you have no coverage. Nevertheless, there may be government assistance programs available. Visit DisasterAssistance.gov and FloodSmart.gov. for more information.

“The good news is that if you purchased “comprehensive” coverage on your vehicle insurance and your vehicles sustained flood damage, they should be covered.”

Establish the pre-loss and post-loss condition of your property.

Pictures, videos, documentation.

Know whether your policy requires you to mitigate damages.

To mitigate damage = to take steps to prevent further damage

Find out what the provisions for “loss of use” and “displacement” are in your policy.

When you contract to have work done, it is recommended that you only work with vetted local contractors who are willing to warrant their work.

Examine your policy: Do you have “cash” or “replacement value”?

“cash value” policy – pays on the depreciated value of your property

“replacement value” policy – provides you with the full cost of replacement

Avoid lawsuits.

Avoid bad apples.

See:

“Settling post-catastrophe insurance claims: What agents should know” | Bernice Ross, Inman, 5 September 2017

#Harvey #HurricaneHarvey #Irma #HurricaneIrma #hurricane #tornado #flood #catastrophe #insurance #claims #realestate #art #risk #resilience

 

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“blockage” & the valuation of damage to art for an insurance claim

Ronald D. Spencer, Chairman of the Art Law Practice at the New York law firm of Carter Ledyard & Milburn LLP, addresses the issue of the valuation of loss or damage to art for an insurance claim. He specifically addresses the use of, and questions the appropriateness of the use of, “blockage” and “blockage discounts” as applicable standards for interpreting the loss valuation provisions of an insurance contract.

The insurance coverage amount is the maximum amount the policy will pay. This amount provides the basis for calculation of insurance premiums. Most insurance claims do not involve claims for the full coverage amount.

The methodology used by the insurer to value a damage claim is a relevant variable for the insured. Most art insurance policies are vague, however, on the valuation method, “providing, simply, that in the event of disagreement on the value of the loss, the insured and insurer will each retain their own appraisers, and if the appraisers do not agree on the value of the loss, the dispute is to be submitted to an umpire or arbitrator, whose decision will be final.”

New York’s Bruce Silverstein Gallery suffered loss on October 29, 2012 caused by flooding during Hurricane Sandy. The gallery had an “All Risks Fine Art Dealers Floater” insurance policy with a “Basis of Valuation” provision stipulating that “consigned property shall be valued at the Agreed Net Consigned Value Plus 10%.” The concept of “blockage” was applied by the umpire representing the gallery’s insurance company. This was the first time the concept of “blockage” for art sales, which first arose in 1972 in the context of art valuations for estate tax purposes, was applied to an art valuation for purposes of calculating a loss for an insurance claim.

When valuing the loss of many artworks, the concept of “blockage” values works as they could be sold on one particular date, the date of the disaster (or death, in the framework of estate sales) on which the loss takes place. Blockage discounts the present value of the works of art based on future streams of income from sales over the period of time it would require to sell the art.

The application of blockage is considered to be consistent with USPAP Standard 6 which provides that when a large mass of property is to be valued as of a specific date, the appraiser is required to take into account that the value of the whole may be different from that of the individual parts.

Mr. Spencer observes that “by choosing to apply a blockage discount to an insurance loss valuation, an umpire, in effect, is deciding that the insurance loss should be determined by the price a bulk buyer of the art at the date of loss would be willing to pay.”

He observes, further, that “the art owner should understand that the result of a blockage discount for the owners’ insurance claim is that the more art the owner has lost, the less the insurer will pay per item—the larger the volume of art lost, the greater the blockage discount for each piece.”

See:

“Think Your Art Is Adequately Insured? Here Are a Few Insider Strategies to Help Minimize Your Risk” | Ronald D. Spencer, artnet.com, 8 September 2017

#art #artmarket #artcollections #collectors #galleries #insurance #fineartinsurance #blockage #blockagediscount #risk #hurricane #Sandy #Harvey #Irma #NewYork #Houston #MiamiBeach #appraisals #valuations #finance #tangibleassets #contractlaw