If there’s anything more complicated than the global forces of thermal expansion, ice sheet melt and ocean circulation that contribute to worldwide sea-level rise, it might be the forces of real estate speculation.
Real estate investment may no longer be just about the next hot neighborhood, it may also now be about the next dry neighborhood.
“‘That’s it, it’s that simple. To be on the beach and to be on the water costs a lot more money, and the cheaper parts of town were furthest from the beach — but it just turns out that the cheapest parts of town farthest from the beach are the highest elevation, and now they’re worth a lot more than they used to be.'”
Jesse M. Keenan, Harvard Graduate School of Design
“‘The real issue is: Are people making real estate decisions based on climate change futures, rather than sort of normal speculation?'” observes Hugh Gladwin, an anthropologist at Florida International University in Miami. Gladwin’s specialty is using geographic information system mapping to understand large, diverse urban settings.
Jesse M. Keenan is a lawyer who teaches climate change adaptation at Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design. Mr. Keenan formerly served as the co-founder and research director of Columbia University’s Center for Urban Real Estate (CURE). His family roots are in Miami and he owns a house and has an office and parking space in Miami. He thinks people are making real estate decisions based on climate change futures.
Using survey data, Mr. Keenan is beginning to see see evidence that middle-income people are leaving Miami Beach and other places with nuisance flooding. Such flooding makes it difficult to get around at high tides or insure a car.
Mr. Keenan observes, “‘Everybody I know that is a small owner of real estate that isn’t within the billionaire class — average middle-class, upper-middle-class Miamians who have real estate on the beach — is in the process of selling their properties and moving to the mainland.'”
Sea-level rise is exacerbating the effects of coastal flooding in South Florida. A 2016 University of Miami study finds that coastal flooding is accelerating. The coastal flooding is coinciding with an accelerated rate of sea-level rise in South Florida. The average rate of sea-level rise jumped from an increase of 3 millimeters a year before 2006 to an increase of 9 millimeters a year on average after 2006. Over the course of one decade, from 2006 to 2016, that’s about 3.5 inches of sea-level rise.
Sam Purkis, a marine geologist at the University of Miami, observes,
“‘What will happen, more than likely, is that you’ll have one big hurricane, and you’ll get a big inundation into the city. And that will serve to rot out the infrastructure — the sewer lines, the electricity, the telecoms. Everything that’s under the road. That becomes very costly to keep replacing every time this happens.'”
“‘That’s it, it’s that simple,'” says Harvard’s Jesse Keenan.
“‘To be on the beach and to be on the water costs a lot more money, and the cheaper parts of town were furthest from the beach — but it just turns out that the cheapest parts of town farthest from the beach are the highest elevation, and now they’re worth a lot more than they used to be.'”
Local governments are considering what sea-level rise means for all those mortgage holders who pay taxes.
Coral Gables released an analysis of how it would pay for infrastructure investment in the face of a shrinking tax base if people leave.
“We’re concerned about it, we’re planning for it, we’re spending money on vulnerability studies trying to know what our vulnerabilities are in terms of our essential infrastructure, and planning to build up and save our communities as long as we can,” Jim Cason, Mayor of Coral Gables, said.
See:
“High Ground Is Becoming Hot Property As Sea Level Rises” | Erika Bolstad, ClimateWire, 1 May 2017, re-printed from ClimateWire by Scientific American with permission from E&E News
Hugh Gladwin, Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs, Florida International University
Jesse M. Keenan, Harvard University Graduate School of Design
Center for Urban Real Estate, Columbia University GSAPP
Sam Purkis, Professor & Chair, Department of Marine Geosciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, University of Miami
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